Weekend Voices: Vucevic Can Contribute To Sixers
In the weeks, days, and hours before the 2011 NBA Draft, Sixers fans around the Delaware Valley chimed in to local talk shows and message boards about their draft preferences. Some wanted to trade up into the top three and draft Turkish center Enes Kanter, while others were content staying put and taking a scoring guard like Providence’s Marshon Brooks, or maybe one of those European forwards everybody was crazy about.
The 76ers did stay put, and drafted 6-foot-11 big man Nikola Vucevic out of USC. Last season, the Swiss-born Vucevic averaged 17.1 points and 10.3 rebounds in 34.9 minutes per game, leading the Trojans in all of those categories. He shot 50.5 percent from the floor (34.9 percent from three-point range), picking up 2.82 fouls per game. Now, the 16th slot in the draft is not a glamorous one — this was not considered a draft full of superstars, and it could be argued that every player taken after No. 2 (Arizona’s Derrick Williams) has significant question marks about their ability to be a star in the Association.
However, I see basketball a little differently — it’s not just about getting superstars, it’s about maximizing efficiency from every position on the court. If your team takes more shots (by forcing more turnovers, or grabbing more rebounds, thus creating more possessions) and shoots at a high percentage, while playing solid defense, your team will win more games.
The Sixers have the pieces in place to play fantastic defense with Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, and coach Doug Collins, but the rebounding and offensive efficiency numbers were still lacking — and that’s why the Sixers needed a true center. This season, the team ranked 18th in rebound margin, 19th in offensive rebounds, 15th in offensive field goal percentage, and 18th in points-per-shot, primarily because they had no reliable inside option.
While that team points-per-shot average was 1.20, centers Spencer Hawes (1.03 PPS) and Marreese Speights (1.18) were both below average. Compare that to Orlando’s Dwight Howard, who averaged a ridiculous 1.71 PPS in 2010-11. Sixers guards Jodie Meeks (1.36 PPS), Lou Williams (1.29 PPS), and Andre Iguodala (1.25 PPS) were above the team average, but it’s clear where the weak spot on the team was.
Vucevic, however, was actually the 30th-most-efficient player in all of Division I basketball this season for players who were used on more than 24 percent of possessions, according to KenPom.com. Vucevic was ahead of players like Brooks, Norris Cole, and Jimmer Fredette, so it’s clear the Sixers got a kid who knows how to score efficiently. In fact, Vucevic had an efficiency rating over 100 (Division I average) all three years he played for Southern Cal.
Now that we’ve established Vucevic as someone who could potentially contribute offensively, let’s take a look at his rebounding numbers. Now, it’s easy enough to say that he averaged 10.3 rebounds per game in the Pac-10, which is not too poor of a stat to look at. However, I’m a geek, so we’re going to look at rebound percentage — that is, the amount of available rebounds that Vucevic brought in.
Markieff Morris, the Kansas forward drafted 13th overall, brought in 25 percent of available defensive boards; other top centers like Mason Plumlee of Duke (a project 1st-rounder next year) and Keith Benson of Oakland were under that number. Vucevic grabbed defensive boards at a 26.0 percent clip, just 0.1 percent behind Jordan Williams of Maryland and 0.2 percent behind superfrosh Jared Sullinger, both of whom were praised for their rebounding ability all season.
At the end of the day, did the Sixers draft the next Dwight Howard? No, they didn’t. But what they did get is a solid, three-year college player from a top conference who put up good numbers — both in terms of ratios as well as raw points and rebounds. If Vucevic can continue to grow under Doug Collins and his staff, it’s highly possible we could see some much more efficient basketball from the frontcourt — and that would translate to more tallies in the win column.
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