Will The Phillies Run In 2012?
The art of the steal has not been lost on the Phillies over the past several seasons. During the Charlie Manuel era, and in this case, some might deem it the Davey Lopes era, the Phillies have been among the best teams at base larceny in the NL.
One of the best, that is, until last season, when the perennial proficiency at swiping bases dipped dramatically for the club – check the chart below.
| Year | SB / CS | NL Rank in SB | SB % / NL Rank in SB % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2011* | 96/24 | 10th | 80% / 1st |
| 2010 | 108/21 | 4th | 84% / 1st |
| 2009 | 119/28 | 2nd | 81% / 1st |
| 2008 | 136/25 | 3rd | 84 % / 1st |
| 2007 | 138/19 | 2nd | 88 % / 1st |
*Davey Lopes not coaching first
Last season, the team’s efficiency remained elite, but the volume of swipes saw a marked swoon. While the loss of Lopes manning the first base coach spot is one notable factor, this could also be a more telling shift found in the nature of the roster. An aging roster with diminishing speed and increased injury concerns could have limited the coaching staff’s propensity to green light attempts.
Some argue that stolen bases are a tactic of the game that might have proven passé when applied to advanced analysis. Even classic forward-thinking manager Earl Weaver thought that the risk of the steal rarely met the potential rewards. Below is a bit of work from Baseball Prospectus discussing the risk/reward ratio of stolen bases.
Think of stealing bases as a bit like one of those commercials for breakfast cereal. You know, the ones where they say it takes 14 bowls of Cereal X to equal what you get from one bowl of Cereal Y. In this case, it takes three stolen bases to equal one walk of shame back to the dugout. If you’re stealing at less than a 75% success rate, you’re better off never going at all.
Consider this run-expectation table:
1st2nd3rdA runner on first with no one out is worth .9116 runs. A successful steal of second base with no one out would bump that to 1.1811 runs, a gain of .2695 expected runs. If that runner is caught, however, the expectation–now with one out and no one on base–drops to .2783, a loss of .6333 expected runs. That loss is about 2.3 times the gain.
The counter to such analysis is the more traditional and old school approach, one that Lopes and Manuel employed from 2007 and into 2010.
“With pitching taking over the game more, as we’ve seen in the past few seasons since testing began,” said baseball great Dale Murphy in a conversation with Philly Sports Daily this past summer, “speed seems like it would be a natural fit for this changing post-testing era. When I played, the NL style of ball was predicated on speed on the paths and putting pressure on the pitcher and defense with that constant threat. I’m not sure why we haven’t seen speed become a weapon again if power has come back to earth.”
If the Phillies intend to regain their penchant for stealing bases, it might then influence their desire to retain a player like Jimmy Rollins, who in the face of declining returns at the plate as he’s aged, remains a legitimate threat on the base paths atop the order. Time, and money, will tell if the Phillies intend to get back into the speed game.
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